Continuing the thread of the 2019 and 2020 Human Development Reports (HDRs), the 2021/2022 HDR carries forward a conversation centered on inequalities while integrating other important themes related to uncertainties in the Anthropocene: societal-level transformations, mental health impacts, political polarization, but also, crucially, opportunity. The Report explores how uncertainty in the Anthropocene is changing, what is driving it, what it means for human development, and how we can thrive in spite of it. The Report argues that, in the end, doubling down on human development is central to a more prosperous future for all. We live in a world of worry. The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, having driven reversals in human development in almost every country, continues to spin off variants unpredictably. War in Ukraine and elsewhere has created more human suffering. Record-breaking temperatures, fires, storms and floods sound the alarm of planetary systems increasingly out of whack. Together, they are fueling a cost-of-living crisis felt around the world, painting a picture of uncertain times and unsettled lives. Uncertainty is not new, but its dimensions are taking ominous new forms today. A new “uncertainty complex” is emerging, never before seen in human history. Constituting it are three volatile and interacting strands: the destabilizing planetary pressures and inequalities of the Anthropocene, the pursuit of sweeping societal transformations to ease those pressures and the widespread and intensifying polarization. This new uncertainty complex and each new crisis it spawns are impeding human development and unsettling lives the world over. In the wake of the pandemic, and for the first time ever, the global Human Development Index (HDI) value declined—for two years straight. Many countries experienced ongoing declines on the HDI in 2021. Even before the pandemic, feelings of insecurity were on the rise nearly everywhere. Many people feel alienated from their political systems, and in another reversal, democratic backsliding has worsened. There is peril in new uncertainties, in the insecurity, polarization and demagoguery that grip many countries. But there is promise, too—an opportunity to reimagine our futures, to renew and adapt our institutions and to craft new stories about who we are and what we value. This is the hopeful path forward, the path to follow if we wish to thrive in a world in flux. Layers of uncertainty are stacking up and interacting to unsettle our lives in unprecedented ways. People have faced diseases, wars and environmental disruptions before. But the confluence of destabilizing planetary pressures with growing inequalities, sweeping societal transformations to ease those pressures and widespread polarization present new, complex, interacting sources of uncertainty for the world and everyone in it. That is the new normal.
Understanding and responding to it are the goals of the 2021/2022 Human Development Report, Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World. It caps a trilogy of Reports beginning with the 2019 Report on inequalities, followed by the 2020 Report on the risks of the Anthropocene—where humans have become a major force driving dangerous planetary change. Thirty-two years ago, the very first Human Development Report declared boldly that “people are the real wealth of nations.” That powerful refrain has guided UNDP and its Human Development Reports ever since, with its messages and meanings taking on richer hues over time....